Middle East Meltdown

Atoms for Peace

As if the Middle East wasn't already in a whole mess a' trouble, them Iranians done 'n introduced nu-cu-lar bombs into it. Well, actually, Israel already did that a generation ago, but don't tell anybody.

So now everyone from Egypt, to Saudi Arabia, to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to Yemen is now lining up to join the nuclear club (with American aid and blessing). What is a non-proliferation regime to do?

Researchers at MIT have been partnering with the UAE to develop civilian nuclear plants that are less susceptible to having fissile material stolen by terrorists and other baddies. The UAE's nuclear strategy is to import fuel from abroad, thus avoiding weapons grade material being available for sticky fingers within the Emirates. These new plants under development would also require refueling far less often, reducing the opportunity for theft en route.

Will it be enough? Let's hope so, because the Gulf is inevitably going to be a nuclear club. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty does not prohibit the development of civilian nuclear power, and explicitly recognizes the right of all sovereign nations to pursue the peaceful atom as long as they can demonstrate that their nuclear programs are not being used for the development of nuclear weapons.

So why would the most oil and natural gas rich countries on Earth want or need to pursue nuclear power? Is civilian nuclear power really just a cover to acquire the capacity to blow each other to smithereens? Maybe, but there are perfectly rational and pressing motivations at work here, too.

First off, oil and natural gas do not equal electricity. Iran, in particular, has an acute electricity shortage, owing to a lack of capitalization in its energy infrastructure (owing in turn to the three decades of embargoes placed on it by the United States). To transform these gallons into gigawatts requires the costly, technologically-advanced, sometimes decade-long construction of gas-fired turbine plants and the like.

Secondly, oil and natural gas-fired plants are dirty and inefficient. Before you scoff at the environmentalist motives of villainous oil sheikhs, consider this: Iran (Axis of Evil Member #2) currently has the highest percentage of domestic energy in the region produced from renewable sources, primarily hydroelectric dams. This year, that dependence on hydroelectric led to rolling blackouts during a severe drought. The UAE, in particular, is developing unprecedented efforts to groom clean energy systems and technologies, to turn back the clock on some of the most concentrated air pollution problems in the world. Tehran, too, with some of the worst traffic and air pollution of any world metropolis, is concerned about developing cleaner energy alternatives. In part, this is a recognition that oil is a one-time geological gift, and the oil-rich nations of the Middle East must plan for the post-oil era. Also, there is the need to keep up appearances for the newly environmentalist nations (and customers) of the West.

Thirdly, oil-producing countries want to save as much oil as they can for export. In many Middle Eastern nations, like Iran, Egypt and Yemen, gasoline is heavily subsidized by the government. Selling fossil fuels domestically--either refined as gasoline, or for use for electricity generation--is an extremely unprofitable enterprise. These resources fetch a much higher price on the market-driven global exchanges. More to the point, rents on fossil fuels are the primary if not the sole source of copious government revenues in these nations. Each barrel of oil diverted from export toward the needs of domestic electricity generation is another bale of petrodollars swiped from government coffers. Iran, in particular, is loathe to divert its oil and natural gas production towards domestic electricity requirements because fossil fuels are its primary exports and a valuable contributor to its current account and government revenue (owing again to the restrictions of American oil embargoes). With plentiful capital available for investment in nuclear infrastructure, petro-states are jumping at the chance to produce as much domestic electricity as possible with nuclear power.

Lastly, and perhaps most vitally, the truly finite resource in the Middle East (and increasingly worldwide) is fresh water. The Gulf States of Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE have almost entirely exhausted their freshwater aquifers. Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Syria all quibble over the Jordan River as their sole source. In a region not known for its rainstorms, the only option for fast-growing populations straining modest water reserves is desalinization of sea water. Desalinization is an extremely energy-intensive process, requiring massive and consistent imputs of electricity. Nuclear energy fits the bill perfectly.

Indians in Space!

"You haven't lived until you've done the Karma Sutra in Zero-G, baby!"

That's right, India's headed to the Moon!

...And that's not all! The Indian Space Research Organisation (or Bhāratīya Antariksh Anusandhān Sangaṭn, for short) hopes to land a motorized rover on the moon in 2010 or 2011. A real life astronaut might get thrown into the atmosphere on an Indian rocket by 2014 (Punjabi Rakesh Sharma became the first Indian in space when hitched a ride with the Russians in 1984). So, who'll be the first Asians on the moon for the Space Race Part II?


An early foray into South Asian spaceflight: Vishnu and Lakshmi riding Garuda, the Hindu patron deity of flight.

Any why? The London Telegraph's Andrew McKie puts it best:

But why would any country not be proud of attempting to add to our knowledge of the universe? For any nation, launching a rocket should not be seen as an exercise in pointless one-upmanship, but as perhaps the ultimate expression of optimism, ingenuity, bravery, and rational, long-term planning for the future. The West would do well to recover some of these qualities, which seem now to be attributes of Asian countries.

Scenarios Are Stupid

From the homophonic doppelganger of my own eponymous blog (sans the surname suffix "-e"), comes a report from Green Futures on the six possible forecasts for climate change that could come to fruition within this generation: "New Years Day 2030." These reports get a lot of coverage when they come out, because they give rise to snappy headlines like "Special report: How our economy is killing the Earth" (New Scientist). But how accurate are they, and are they useful?

This Green Futures report employs a very common technique that futurists use, known as "scenario building." Just like any good storyteller, a futurist knows that a narrative makes his point more evocative and memorable to the human ear, reared as it is on thousands of years of oral tradition. The potential scenarios are laid out for the audience, with one or more worst cases added (if we continue to disregard all that is holy, we're f*cked), one or more best cases added (if only you'd listen to me, things would be just peachy), and a "control" case (if everything continues as it has with no surprises, this should happen).


"Tell me, Spirit--how can I save money on my car insurance?"

The scenarios are not predictions, since that implies that the futurist knows with certainty what will happen (it definitely will rain tomorrow). They may or may not be forecasts, which like weather forecasts, are probability-based (there is a 60% chance of rain tomorrow).

The two most common applications of scenario-making are for climate change models and "peak oil" scenarios. The latter purports to determine when we will (or have) likely reached peak oil production, and when oil supplies will begin to dwindle. Such reports come annually from a variety of think-tanks, NGOs, governments, and oil companies themselves. There is even a (dubious-looking) Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. The very practice of scenario-making was developed early on by Shell Oil, through the efforts of in-house futurists like Jeroen van der Veer, and are still produced every three years. The IEA produces several annual reports, such as the World Energy Outlook and Energy Technology Perspectives. The US Department of Energy produces its own annual Annual Energy Outlook. These reports have been quite variable in their accuracy over time.

The former, climate change, has fared no better. Global warming remains contentious in the public forum because climate change models have also proven to be fickle. The majority of mainstream scientists agree that climate change is a reality, and that it at least has some man-made causation. However, nailing how much and when is quite difficult. Extrapolating from current trends ("if we continue to pump this amount of CO2 into the air and the temperature rises this much per year, the earth will be X-percentage warmer in 25 years") is misleading. It disregards the fact that certain tipping points, once reached, could accelerate or decelerate trends, transforming geometric growth into exponential growth overnight.

Raising the temperature just a few degrees, for example, could melt enough polar ice to release a catastrophic amount of embedded methane from the ocean bed into the atmosphere, creating a catalytic negative feedback cycle of warming. This is known as the "Clathrate gun hypothesis," and as a theory is far from uncontroversial. Even so, it's just one example of the unforeseen variables that must be included into a model that seeks to project trends in something as complex as the global climate.


Here, we see a model for the cyclical movement of bullshit into the atmosphere.

For that matter, a current or future technical advance could just turn back the clock on climate change. Fusion nuclear power has been hanging on the edge of science for a half-century, promising endless wells of energy too cheap to meter, with no radioactive waste. Some ambitious folks in southern France think they might just be a decade away from this elusive wonder. But, we just don't know. Who predicted penicillin, the internet, or iPods? And just where are our damn rocket packs? Trying to factor disruptive technologies, paradigm-shifting scientific discoveries, or socio-political revolutions into future scenarios is fraught with error.


We've employed webcams for slightly different purposes than the Edwardians foresaw...

There is another, perhaps more important problem with scenario-making as a futurist methodology. Scenarios are narratives, and just like any story, they are the product of their author's biases and motives. It is no coincidence that energy scenarios from oil companies, governments, NGOs, and environmentalists carry wildly divergent conclusions. Depending on how optimistic or pessimistic the author is; what variables he chooses to include, emphasize, or deemphasize; or what givens are taken for granted (for example, there is a wide spectrum of opinion on how much oil is actually in the ground today), conclusions can be wildly different. There are the left-field theorists who question whether oil is really a limited resource after all. Each of these theories is inherently political, seeking as it does to affect public opinion, and by extension, public policy.

Scenario-makers, like science fiction authors or Utopians, seek to affect the behavior of their audience by piquing their imagination. One should be wary of the motives of both futurist Jerimiahs and Pollyannas. The only certainty about the future is that it's coming--anyone who tells you what will happen is either God or lying.

Voicemail is so Passe

"Man, I hate checking my voicemail..."

"Think Before You Voicemail" (TechCruch)

"Then there’s my favorite method, the one I use personally - let the message box get full and then don’t empty it. Caller ID still tells me who called, and I can simply call them back." Word.

The urban eco-commute of the future

Equal parts bicycle and moped,

Equal parts thrifty and stylish,

Equal parts eco-conscious and fashion-conscious...

...just like everything else in the Green Movement.

Ok, ok. I'm not gonna pretend I don't really want one.

$3,500 @ Derringer Cycles

Amtrack Back on the Rails

"I think I can, I think I can...finally turn a profit..."

Last year, I forecast that the increasing price of fuel would railroad America back to its 19th Century embrace of the train.

In yet another sign of the times, Amtrack has received its first commitment of Federal funds since 2002. Meanwhile, ridership has been up 10% since last year.

So get back on track with the cool kids and ride the rail, Joe Biden does.


"I LOVE AMTRACK!"

New World Order Part Deux at Hand?

"Hey Georgie, forget about that whole Iraq War thing--let's be friends."

Will George Bush and the next American president (yes, by that I mean The Obaminator) go along with a "Bretton Woods II" that would do for the world financial order what the original Bretton Woods did for global monetary and trade policy?

Will this take an individualist, free-market American flavor like the first, or swing closer to the European Dream of a multipolar world based on communalism, sustainability, and human rights?

You Can't Read this Year's Nobel Prize Winner

His name is Jean-Marie Gustave Le Clézio. He's almost entirely unknown and unavailable in the Anglosphere. Good luck finding any of his books on Amazon.

Except this one.

Is Mr. Engdahl, Permanent Secretary of the Nobel Committee, right in charging Americans with "insularity" and "ignorance" about world literature? Or has the Nobel Committee just continued to bend over backwards to exclude American writers (there have only been three in the last 52 years, with the last being Toni Morrison in 1993).


"Ain't never heared of no John-Mary Lay-Cleeezo, stranger..."

The Men's Lib Movement

Men of the future will be able to compliment each other on their sparkling eyes, well-manicured fingers, and supple new-gym-membership-fed muscles without shame!

"Your testicles are terrific"

Grand Paean to the Blog...

Andrew Sullivan of The Atlantic (which has a spiffy new makeover) tells us...

Why I Blog

"...the key to understanding a blog is to realize that it’s a broadcast, not a publication. If it stops moving, it dies. If it stops paddling, it sinks."

Point taken, reader.

Links of the Day: October 20

Why the American appeal of the road hog displays contradictory individualism and conformity--speaking of which, despite political orientation or societal relation to the white colonial power structure, we're all postmodernists now, so keep on reading the written medium de jure of the deconstructed world we hath wrought: the blog .